The Carbon War Room team includes high-profile entrepreneurs,
visionaries, change-makers, business leaders, and subject experts that
understand the urgent need to address climate change and the potential
for wealth generation in the post-carbon economy. We are a team
committed to developing and supporting the business ideas that do
both.
JOIN US
JOIN US
SITUATION
Renewable fuels are compelling as one of the few low-carbon solutions in transportation that is ready for deployment and requires minimal infrastructure changes. Hitting stabilization targets to avoid catastrophic climate change will require reductions in transport-sector emissions, which are the fastest growing category of emissions.
Renewable fuels are compelling as one of the few low-carbon solutions in transportation that is ready for deployment and requires minimal infrastructure changes. Hitting stabilization targets to avoid catastrophic climate change will require reductions in transport-sector emissions, which are the fastest growing category of emissions. Unchecked, annual emissions will continue to increase above current levels of 6 billion tons, or approximately 12%, of global anthropogenic emissions CO2e. Renewable fuel production has been growing rapidly globally, with production of ethanol reaching 17.3 billion gallons in 2008, led by the U.S. and Brazil.
Collectively these fuels displaced approximately 30 billion gallons of gasoline (with 50% of savings from reduced fuel transport), or 2.2% of global liquid fuel consumption. To achieve reductions of 1 billion tons of CO2e in the transport sector by 2020 to support global stabilization targets for CO2e to avert catastrophic climate change, renewable fuel production would have to scale up more than ten fold. This scale up is possible.
Decreasing petroleum dependence through reliance on biofuels has as co-benefits energy security and reductions in air pollution, including avoided emissions of hydrocarbons from incomplete combustion of fossil-fuel that cause lung-harming ozone. Policy support for renewable fuel production in the U.S. has largely been based on the national security objective of energy independence to protect the U.S. economy and military from oil price shocks and supply cut-offs by foreign powers. A second and less prominent issue of national interest is increasing competition for scarce resources, as India and China ramp up demand for oil. At the very minimum this will drive up prices but could also lead to conflict and shortages. Military operations to protect energy interests abroad are another cost under business-as-usual that sees continued dependence on petroleum imports.
OBJECTIVE
Renewable fuels have the potential to scale up to offset more than 1 billion tons of CO2e by 2020. Supporting policy is critical to establish the renewable fuel market. Only with assured markets can biofuels attract the level of investment needed to scale.
Renewable fuels have the potential to scale up to offset more than 1 billion tons of CO2e by 2020. Supporting policy is critical to establish the renewable fuel market. Only with assured markets can biofuels attract the level of investment needed to scale. Temporary low oil prices can quickly undermine renewable fuel production, which is just getting established and highly sensitive to fluctuations in demand. Minimum deployment levels allow producers to learn and innovate, bringing down prices – a model that has been validated in Brazil. The U.S. government has set deployment targets for ethanol, although one of the most promising areas of biofuels deployment, as a substitute for jet fuel, has yet to be granted support. As the global economy recovers and energy prices rebound, there will be a strong incentive for the business lobby to get behind alternative fuels.
Smart policy clearly needs to take into consideration concerns over land use and water use and to establish accounting rules for carbon savings that factor in land-related carbon emissions.
Technology development is still required in the renewable fuel space and is another important area for investment. It is attractive to private investors when deployment times are short and markets are established. For projects with longer deployment times and more fundamental research questions, government support will need to be obtained. Second-generation, or advanced, renewable fuels still in the deployment phase are needed to achieve scale sustainably.
Free-Enterprise Approaches
Fuel costs are a substantial component of cost across the transport industry, which makes fuel alternatives attractive – particularly in the face of proposed carbon taxation. Once alternative fuels are competitive on a cost basis (which may include a carbon price), they will be widely adopted, as has been demonstrated with the Brazilian experience. Alternative fuels at a premium may also be attractive due to the reduced risk and price volatility compared with petroleum. Consortiums of fuel buyers – such as the Alliance for Sustainable Air Transportation – that can commit to large quantities of biofuels are important to achieve economies of scale in production and establish a robust market. Also important in new markets is information around the benefits of supporting infrastructure which can drive necessary co-investment in infrastructure, e.g. airport fuel infrastructure, and where appropriate government support or standards for infrastructure including flex-fuel vehicles.
BIOFUELS ARE READY FOR DEPLOYMENT 
Biofuels are one of the few low-carbon transport solutions that can be deployed with minimal infrastructure changes. Biofuels displace fossil-fuels and reduce emissions of CO2e and...
Read more >
BIOFUEL PRODUCTION IS GROWING RAPIDLY
Biofuel production has been growing rapidly globally, with production of ethanol reaching 17.3 billion gallons in 2008 - primarily sugarcane ethanol in Brazil and corn ethanol in the U.S. Corn...
Read more >
NEXTGEN BIOFUELS HAVE GREAT POTENTIAL
Second and third generation biofuels have higher yields and avoid some of the land use issues associated with first generation biofuels. ...
Image: ...
Read more >
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION OF LIQUID FUELS
Projected increases in liquid fuel consumption globally will increase emissions of CO2e unless alternative low-carbon liquid fuels are substituted more aggressively.
Read more > Source: EIA, 2009
PRODUCTION OF RENEWABLE FUELS
Biofuels satisfy a small fraction of global liquid fuel demand and would have to grow much more rapidly than currently projected under all three EIA scenarios to offset rising emissions from...
Read more > Source: EIA, 2009
TRANSPORT EMISSIONS ARE RISING
Under business-as-usual, transport emissions continue to increase dramatically and are a major contributor to rising CO2e levels that lead to catastrophic climate change.
Read more > Source: IPCC, 2007
TRANSPORT ENERGY USE IS RISING
Reliance on petroleum, which supplies approximately 95% of transport energy, is driving CO2e emissions growth in the transport sector at a dangerous rate.
Read more > Source: IPCC, 2007INTELLIGENCE
REPORTS
UNEP, 2009
IEA (Paris), 2008
Biomass Research and Development Board (US), 2008
PUBLICATIONS
Lucas Reijnders and Mark A.J. Huijbregts
Springer, 2009
Springer, 2009
Schafer Andreas, Heywood et al.
MIT Press, 2009
MIT Press, 2009
The Worldwatch Institute, 2006
