Atmospheric concentrations of CO₂e are rising due to increasing anthropogenic emissions. Unchecked, rising concentrations of CO₂e in the atmosphere will lead to catastrophic climate change.
Public electricity and heating in Annex I countries accounted for over 6.68 billion tons of CO₂e emissions annually in 2007.
Transport is responsible for approximately 20% of global anthropogenic emissions, or more than 4.63 billion tons of CO₂e annually. Source: UNFCCC, 2009.
Buildings are responsible for an estimated 1.45 billion tons of CO₂e in Annex I nations and over 20% of global anthropogenic emissions annually. Source: UNFCCC, 2009.
Annex I industry emissions are over 1.3 billion tons of CO₂e annually. Global industry emissions account for approximately 24% of annual anthropogenic emissions. Source: UNFCCC, 2009.
Emisisons from agriculture in Annex I countries totaled more than 1.43 billion in 2007 CO₂e emissions.
The EIA estimates that 2006 energy-related emissions from non-OECD countries accounted for approximately 30%, of global anthropogenic CO₂e emissions, or 15.4 billion tons. Source: EIA, 2009.
Biochar could potentially remove over 1 billion tons of CO₂e annually. In general, carbon management solutions could remove billions of tons of CO₂e from the atmosphere annually.
Renewable fuels are compelling as one of the few low-carbon solutions in transportation that is ready for deployment and requires minimal infrastructure changes. Hitting stabilization targets to avoid catastrophic climate change will require reductions in transport-sector emissions, which are the fastest growing category of emissions.
Renewable fuels are compelling as one of the few low-carbon solutions in transportation that is ready for deployment and requires minimal infrastructure changes. Hitting stabilization targets to avoid catastrophic climate change will require reductions in transport-sector emissions, which are the fastest growing category of emissions. Unchecked, annual emissions will continue to increase above current levels of 6 billion tons, or approximately 12%, of global anthropogenic emissions CO2e. Renewable fuel production has been growing rapidly globally, with production of ethanol reaching 17.3 billion gallons in 2008, led by the U.S. and Brazil.
Collectively these fuels displaced approximately 30 billion gallons of gasoline (with 50% of savings from reduced fuel transport), or 2.2% of global liquid fuel consumption. To achieve reductions of 1 billion tons of CO2e in the transport sector by 2020 to support global stabilization targets for CO2e to avert catastrophic climate change, renewable fuel production would have to scale up more than ten fold. This scale up is possible.
Decreasing petroleum dependence through reliance on biofuels has as co-benefits energy security and reductions in air pollution, including avoided emissions of hydrocarbons from incomplete combustion of fossil-fuel that cause lung-harming ozone. Policy support for renewable fuel production in the U.S. has largely been based on the national security objective of energy independence to protect the U.S. economy and military from oil price shocks and supply cut-offs by foreign powers. A second and less prominent issue of national interest is increasing competition for scarce resources, as India and China ramp up demand for oil. At the very minimum this will drive up prices but could also lead to conflict and shortages. Military operations to protect energy interests abroad are another cost under business-as-usual that sees continued dependence on petroleum imports.
Renewable fuels have the potential to scale up to offset more than 1 billion tons of CO2e by 2020. Supporting policy is critical to establish the renewable fuel market. Only with assured markets can biofuels attract the level of investment needed to scale.
Renewable fuels have the potential to scale up to offset more than 1 billion tons of CO2e by 2020. Supporting policy is critical to establish the renewable fuel market. Only with assured markets can biofuels attract the level of investment needed to scale. Temporary low oil prices can quickly undermine renewable fuel production, which is just getting established and highly sensitive to fluctuations in demand. Minimum deployment levels allow producers to learn and innovate, bringing down prices – a model that has been validated in Brazil. The U.S. government has set deployment targets for ethanol, although one of the most promising areas of biofuels deployment, as a substitute for jet fuel, has yet to be granted support. As the global economy recovers and energy prices rebound, there will be a strong incentive for the business lobby to get behind alternative fuels.
Smart policy clearly needs to take into consideration concerns over land use and water use and to establish accounting rules for carbon savings that factor in land-related carbon emissions.
Technology development is still required in the renewable fuel space and is another important area for investment. It is attractive to private investors when deployment times are short and markets are established. For projects with longer deployment times and more fundamental research questions, government support will need to be obtained. Second-generation, or advanced, renewable fuels still in the deployment phase are needed to achieve scale sustainably.
Free-Enterprise Approaches
Fuel costs are a substantial component of cost across the transport industry, which makes fuel alternatives attractive – particularly in the face of proposed carbon taxation. Once alternative fuels are competitive on a cost basis (which may include a carbon price), they will be widely adopted, as has been demonstrated with the Brazilian experience. Alternative fuels at a premium may also be attractive due to the reduced risk and price volatility compared with petroleum. Consortiums of fuel buyers – such as the Alliance for Sustainable Air Transportation – that can commit to large quantities of biofuels are important to achieve economies of scale in production and establish a robust market. Also important in new markets is information around the benefits of supporting infrastructure which can drive necessary co-investment in infrastructure, e.g. airport fuel infrastructure, and where appropriate government support or standards for infrastructure including flex-fuel vehicles.
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