Atmospheric concentrations of CO₂e are rising due to increasing anthropogenic emissions. Unchecked, rising concentrations of CO₂e in the atmosphere will lead to catastrophic climate change.
Public electricity and heating in Annex I countries accounted for over 6.68 billion tons of CO₂e emissions annually in 2007.
Transport is responsible for approximately 20% of global anthropogenic emissions, or more than 4.63 billion tons of CO₂e annually. Source: UNFCCC, 2009.
Buildings are responsible for an estimated 1.45 billion tons of CO₂e in Annex I nations and over 20% of global anthropogenic emissions annually. Source: UNFCCC, 2009.
Annex I industry emissions are over 1.3 billion tons of CO₂e annually. Global industry emissions account for approximately 24% of annual anthropogenic emissions. Source: UNFCCC, 2009.
Emisisons from agriculture in Annex I countries totaled more than 1.43 billion in 2007 CO₂e emissions.
The EIA estimates that 2006 energy-related emissions from non-OECD countries accounted for approximately 30%, of global anthropogenic CO₂e emissions, or 15.4 billion tons. Source: EIA, 2009.
Biochar could potentially remove over 1 billion tons of CO₂e annually. In general, carbon management solutions could remove billions of tons of CO₂e from the atmosphere annually.
Despite gains in fuel economy, global emissions from local transport including light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and buses have continued to increase. Emissions from new vehicles are outstripping the emissions reductions from efficiency.
Despite gains in fuel economy, global emissions from local transport including light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and buses have continued to increase. Emissions from new vehicles are outstripping the emissions reductions from efficiency. The LDV segment (cars and light trucks) is the largest contributor of CO2e emissions in the transport sector, accounting for nearly half of transport emissions. Estimates of current annual emissions based on data from the IPCC are greater than 3 billion tons of CO2e annually, or approximately 6% of total anthropogenic emissions. These emissions are growing rapidly and projected to rise between 2009 and 2020 under business-as-usual. Under this scenario, transport emissions are a significant contributor to rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2e that lead to catastrophic climate change.
There are currently an estimated 800 million cars and light trucks on the road worldwide, with 250 million of them on the road in the U.S. If China, India, and other developing countries increase their use of passenger vehicles as predicted, that number is expected to grow to 1.6 billion by 2020. If one includes trucks, buses, and motorized scooters, thee number of vehicles on the road in 2020 is above 2 billion.
Change in the light-duty vehicle sector faces a number of hurdles. Established infrastructure and consumer preference for large, powerful vehicles are perpetuating the status quo. Fleet turn-over rates also impede fast change.
Reform in the local transport sector requires transport models – vehicles or popular public transit solutions - that can meet consumers’ standards for comfort while still meeting low-carbon standards.
Reform in the local transport sector requires transport models – vehicles or popular public transit solutions - that can meet consumers’ standards for comfort while still meeting low-carbon standards.
Fundamental change will require consumer acceptance of new types of cars, e.g. plug-in electric hybrids, and/or transit alternatives such as green buses. More stringent standards governing vehicle efficiency and investment in public transit can help catalyze change. However, the most important change will come from radical new business models that move away from today's "purchase" model to tomorrow's "transportation service" model. These new business models are needed to address financing, leasing, and sharing to make new vehicles, including electric vehicles, attractive.
Relatively conservative estimates by the IPCC of what is possible in this sector suggest reductions of between 1.6 and 2.6 billion tons of CO2e in the transport sector by 2030, mainly through enhanced efficiency in the light-duty vehicle sector and adoption of biofuels. The challenge is to achieve greater reductions in a 2020 timeframe. Promising areas include near-term vehicle technology – including electric drive vehicles (whose emissions depend on the electricity source, e.g. coal, natural gas or renewables), hybrids, fuel cells, and battery electric vehicles – and efficiency measures that include reducing vehicle weight through use of new materials such as carbon fiber, reduced drag through aerodynamic design, and engine efficiency. Additional R&D funding is need for fuel-cells and batteris, among other areas.
Free-Enterprise Approaches
Innovative companies that aim to transform this sector to a low-carbon sustainable future are commercializing fully electric vehicles, plug-in electric hybrid vehicles, fuel-cells, light-weight designs, and alternative fuels. Success at the level of the Toyota Prius won’t be enough to reduce emissions in this sector; fundamental change is required to achieve emissions reductions in the face of growing transport demand. More models that provide low-carbon performance – style, safety, and speed – are needed. The Tesla sports car made headlines in 2008 when released, as an attractive high-end sports car that could deliver both power and zero emissions. New competitors such as Riva, Coda, TH!NK, Nissan, GM, and many lesser known Chinese players are leading innovation at much lower price points.
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