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SITUATION
Despite gains in fuel economy, global emissions from local transport including light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and buses have continued to increase. Emissions from new vehicles are outstripping the emissions reductions from efficiency.
Despite gains in fuel economy, global emissions from local transport including light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and buses have continued to increase. Emissions from new vehicles are outstripping the emissions reductions from efficiency. The LDV segment (cars and light trucks) is the largest contributor of CO2e emissions in the transport sector, accounting for nearly half of transport emissions. Estimates of current annual emissions based on data from the IPCC are greater than 3 billion tons of CO2e annually, or approximately 6% of total anthropogenic emissions. These emissions are growing rapidly and projected to rise between 2009 and 2020 under business-as-usual. Under this scenario, transport emissions are a significant contributor to rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2e that lead to catastrophic climate change.
There are currently an estimated 800 million cars and light trucks on the road worldwide, with 250 million of them on the road in the U.S. If China, India, and other developing countries increase their use of passenger vehicles as predicted, that number is expected to grow to 1.6 billion by 2020. If one includes trucks, buses, and motorized scooters, thee number of vehicles on the road in 2020 is above 2 billion.
Change in the light-duty vehicle sector faces a number of hurdles. Established infrastructure and consumer preference for large, powerful vehicles are perpetuating the status quo. Fleet turn-over rates also impede fast change.
OBJECTIVE
Reform in the local transport sector requires transport models – vehicles or popular public transit solutions - that can meet consumers’ standards for comfort while still meeting low-carbon standards.
Reform in the local transport sector requires transport models – vehicles or popular public transit solutions - that can meet consumers’ standards for comfort while still meeting low-carbon standards.
Fundamental change will require consumer acceptance of new types of cars, e.g. plug-in electric hybrids, and/or transit alternatives such as green buses. More stringent standards governing vehicle efficiency and investment in public transit can help catalyze change. However, the most important change will come from radical new business models that move away from today's "purchase" model to tomorrow's "transportation service" model. These new business models are needed to address financing, leasing, and sharing to make new vehicles, including electric vehicles, attractive.
Relatively conservative estimates by the IPCC of what is possible in this sector suggest reductions of between 1.6 and 2.6 billion tons of CO2e in the transport sector by 2030, mainly through enhanced efficiency in the light-duty vehicle sector and adoption of biofuels. The challenge is to achieve greater reductions in a 2020 timeframe. Promising areas include near-term vehicle technology – including electric drive vehicles (whose emissions depend on the electricity source, e.g. coal, natural gas or renewables), hybrids, fuel cells, and battery electric vehicles – and efficiency measures that include reducing vehicle weight through use of new materials such as carbon fiber, reduced drag through aerodynamic design, and engine efficiency. Additional R&D funding is need for fuel-cells and batteris, among other areas.
Free-Enterprise Approaches
Innovative companies that aim to transform this sector to a low-carbon sustainable future are commercializing fully electric vehicles, plug-in electric hybrid vehicles, fuel-cells, light-weight designs, and alternative fuels. Success at the level of the Toyota Prius won’t be enough to reduce emissions in this sector; fundamental change is required to achieve emissions reductions in the face of growing transport demand. More models that provide low-carbon performance – style, safety, and speed – are needed. The Tesla sports car made headlines in 2008 when released, as an attractive high-end sports car that could deliver both power and zero emissions. New competitors such as Riva, Coda, TH!NK, Nissan, GM, and many lesser known Chinese players are leading innovation at much lower price points.
LDVS EMIT 6% OF GLOBAL CO2E 
Light duty vehicles that include cars and light trucks emit more than 3 billion tons of CO2e annually, or approximately 6% of total anthropogenic emissions according to the IPCC. The...
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TRANSPORT EMISSIONS ARE RISING
Under business-as-usual, transport emissions continue to increase dramatically and are a major contributor to rising CO2e levels that lead to catastrophic climate change.
Read more > Source: IPCC, 2007
LDV OWNERSHIP IS ON THE RISE
The total stock of light-duty vehicles (LDV) is projected by the WBCSD to increase by over 30% between 2010 and 2020.
Read more > Source: IPCC, 2007
TRANSPORT ENERGY USE IS RISING
Reliance on petroleum, which supplies approximately 95% of transport energy, is driving CO2e emissions growth in the transport sector at a dangerous rate.
Read more > Source: IPCC, 2007
PUBLIC BUSES REDUCE EMISSIONS
Public transport is more efficient and has lower CO2e emissions than automobiles. Hybrid-electric and fuel cell buses are even more environmentally responsible. ...
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BATTERY-CARS REQUIRE NEW INFRASTRUCTURE
Electric cars reduce CO2e emissions but pose some challenges. For long trips that require more energy than is held on a single charge, battery swapping stations are a compelling...
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ELECTRIC CARS LOWER EMISSIONS
Cars powered by grid electricity generated from natural gas or renewables have lower CO2e emission per mile than their traditional gas and diesel counterparts. As the energy mix for...
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E-CARS ARE BECOMING MAINSTREAM
Traditional automobile manufacturers are developing electric cars targetting mainstream consumers. Fleet turnover is a constraint in terms of achieving large-scale CO2e emissions from...
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HYBRID CARS HAVE LOWER EMISSIONS
High miles per-gallon and low emissions are behind the success of hybrid-electric cars such as the Toyota Prius. Estimates by the Gigaton Throwdown Initiative showed that 300 million Prius cars...
Read more >INTELLIGENCE
REPORTS
Urban Land Institute, 2009
EPA, 2009
MIT, 2008
Meridian International Research, 2008
Electric Power Research Institute, 2007
PUBLICATIONS
D. Sperling & D. Gordon
Oxford University Press, 2009
Oxford University Press, 2009
Schafer Andreas, Heywood et al.
MIT Press, 2009
MIT Press, 2009
OECD and International Transport Forum, 2008
