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SITUATION
Growth in global air travel is rapidly increasing emissions of CO2e from the aviation sector. The IPCC estimates that aviation is responsible for an estimated 1.5 billion tons, or 3%, of annual anthropogenic CO2e emissions. At its current growth rate, the IPCC estimates that the industry will be responsible for over 5% of global emissions by 2020.
Growth in global air travel is rapidly increasing emissions of CO2e from the aviation sector. The IPCC estimates that aviation is responsible for an estimated 1.5 billion tons, or 3%, of annual anthropogenic CO2e emissions. At its current growth rate, the IPCC estimates that the industry will be responsible for over 5% of global emissions by 2020. Unchecked, the growth in emissions of CO2e will contribute to higher atmospheric concentrations of CO2e that cause irreversible and catastrophic climate change. The sustainability of the aviation industry has come increasingly under scrutiny, leading the U.K. Sustainable Development Commission to issue a 2008 recommendation to halt airport development until addressed.
Industry efforts to increase airline efficiency and lower fuel costs, which account for 20% to 30% of industry cost, are helping to offset emissions growth. There is continual design innovation to reduce fuel use and lower costs. Planes today are on average 20% more efficient than the previous generation of planes. The new generation of planes under construction, such as the Boeing Dreamliner, employs lightweight materials and innovative design and could reduce fuel costs by an additional 20%. Overall efficiency gains of 25% are projected by 2020.
Current measures, however, are not enough to offset increases in total emissions due to expansion of air travel. Alternatives to carbon-based fuels for the industry is a focal point.
OBJECTIVE
There is a significant opportunity for transformation of the aviation industry to low-carbon given the alignment of business interests and climate interests, with a shared focus on fuel economy and alternative fuels. Commitments to rapid development and deployment targets for these measures are an important first step.
There is a significant opportunity for transformation of the aviation industry to low-carbon given the alignment of business interests and climate interests, with a shared focus on fuel economy and alternative fuels. Commitments to rapid development and deployment targets for these measures are an important first step. Preventing emissions growth in the aviation sector could avoid more than 1.5 billion tons of anthropogenic CO2e emissions annually in 2020. More aggressive efficiency gains and alternative fuels adoption hold even greater emissions reductions potential by 2020.
Free-Enterprise Approaches
Interest in alternative fuel use in airplanes is motivated in part by a desire to hedge against fuel price volatility. Although biofuel alternatives to burning kerosene are not yet fully commercial, fuels produced from algae and jatropha are under development and showing promise in early performance tests. Widespread adoption of these fuels could have significant emissions implications. The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Users Group formed in September 2008 and including 16 major airlines has pledged to only use biofuels that perform as well as kerosene-substitutes but have a lower carbon impact. Specific adoption targets have not been set but are needed.
Possible efficiency measures beyond design include increasing plane occupancy and flying at slower speeds, both of which improve the bottom line. Changes at the carrier level being implemented today include changing flying behavior (routes, idling, and velocity) to maximize per-mile flight efficiency.
AIR TRAVEL IS MAJOR CO2E SOURCE
The aviation industry is responsible for an estimated 3%, or 1.5 billion tons, of annual anthropogenic CO2e emissions. At its current growth rate, the IPCC estimates that the industry...
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AVIATION ACCOUNTS FOR 7% OF U.K. EMISSIONS
Aviation emissions are a significant portion of total emissions; in the U.K., aviation is estimated to contribute 7% of total CO2e emissions.
Read more > Source: DEFRA, 2007
TRANSPORT EMISSIONS ARE RISING
Under business-as-usual, transport emissions continue to increase dramatically and are a major contributor to rising CO2e levels that lead to catastrophic climate change.
Read more > Source: IPCC, 2007
TRANSPORT ENERGY USE IS RISING
Reliance on petroleum, which supplies approximately 95% of transport energy, is driving CO2e emissions growth in the transport sector at a dangerous rate.
Read more > Source: IPCC, 2007
LOW CO2E FUEL IS NEEDED FOR AVIATION 
Efficiency gains in airplane design are not able to offset the rise in emissions due to increased transit demand. A low-carbon fuel solution is needed to deliver significant emissions reductions...
Read more >INTELLIGENCE
REPORTS
FAA, 2005
GAO, 2009
PUBLICATIONS
P. Upham, et al.
2003
2003
Eds. S. Gossling, P. Upham
2009
2009
A. Bows, K. Anderson, P. Upham
2008
2008
